LABOUR will gain Weston-super-Mare from the Conservatives at the general election in July, new polling by YouGov suggests.

The party looks set to win as many as 422 seats, with the Tories reduced to just 140, according to YouGov analysis published on Monday.

The poll, using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique and carried out for Sky News, suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on course for a majority of 194 – the largest margin for any party since 1924.

The estimated seat projections are based on modelled responses from 53,334 adults in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland.

Weston Mercury: Rishi Sunak called a July election in a rain-soaked speech outside Number 10.Rishi Sunak called a July election in a rain-soaked speech outside Number 10. (Image: Lucy North)

In the Weston-super-Mare constituency, the poll projects Labour candidate Daniel Aldridge to win with 39 per cent of the vote share. 

This would see him unseat Conservative candidate John Penrose, who has represented the town in Parliament since 2005 but is expected to get 33 per cent of votes on July 4.

Mr Penrose has held several roles in government, including as Theresa May and Boris Johnson's Anti-Corruption Champion.

In 2019, he won the seat with a majority of 17,121 votes.

The YouGov polling projects him to finish ahead of Reform UK, with Nigel Farage's party expected to get 13 per cent of the vote with their yet-to-be-announced candidate.

And it expects Liberal Democrat candidate Patrick Keating to get 9 per cent, ahead of the Green Party's Thomas Joseph Harrison Daw.

Weston Mercury: The Palace of Westminster in London.The Palace of Westminster in London.

“The model is designed to tell us what would happen if the general election were happening right now, with people’s vote intention (or lack of) as it currently stands,” YouGov's website says.

“It is not a forecast, but is designed to give a detailed, seat-by-seat look at the British political landscape as we head toward July 4.”

The model also projects that the Liberal Democrats would become the third-largest party in Westminster with 48 seats, usurping the Scottish National Party (SNP).

“Elsewhere, we are projecting that the Greens would win a second Westminster seat for the first time in their history, in Bristol Central, that Plaid Cymru would also win two seats, and that Reform UK would come away, as it stands, empty handed,” YouGov says.

“If these results were indeed replicated on polling day, it would be a seismic shift for British politics, with Boris Johnson’s ‘one seat for every day of the year’ thumping 2019 majority long a distant memory.”

The candidates for the Weston-super-Mare seat are: Daniel Aldridge (Labour), Thomas Joseph Harrison Daw (Green Party), Patrick Keating (Liberal Democrats), John Penrose (Conservatives) and Paul David Spencer (Workers Party of Britain).